A September release would follow Apple's usual patter for phone launches, but Industry analyst Gene Munster has projected that we may not see the iPhone 6 launch until the end of the month.
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As CNET reports, releasing earlier would allow Apple to record a higher percentage of the phone's sales in its quarterly report, but Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray, still projects a late September launch. Originally projecting a mid-month release date, Munster now says signs indicate a September 26 launch.
"We believe the guide suggests a launch on the last Friday of September (9/26) vs. our prior thinking of a 9/19 launch," the analyst forecast. "This means Apple will only benefit from 5 days of iPhone 6 sales vs. 12 in our prior expectation."
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Apple's latest financial report was healthy ($7.75 billion profit), but revenue was lower than projected. As has been the case for its competitors across the industry, iPhone sales were down in a slowing market and came in several hundred thousand under the average forecast (though still moved 35.2 million units).
Given that, you might assume Apple wants to get the iPhone 6 out the door as soon as soon as possible to improve its next financial report. Munster provided a pretty complicated explanation of the situation based on his predictions:
"We reach 16 million iPhone 6 units by assuming that Apple launches both a 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch iPhone 6 leading to a 14 million unit 3-day launch weekend (up 55 percent year-over-year vs 9 million for the iPhone 5S/5C launch)," Munster said.
"For the launch weekend, we note the average y/y launch weekend growth for the past 5 iPhone launches averaged 62 percent, and the last two body-style upgrades averaged 48 percent y/y growth. We assume Apple sells another 2 million units in the remaining 2 days in the September quarter for a total of 16 million iPhone 6 units."
While it may be tough to grasp the nuances of what he's describing, the concepts of the two-model system and more time on the market are easy to understand. We'll have to wait and see what Apple plans, but Munster's projections seem confident for the time being.
