The first round of matches in the 2014 World Cup is in the books, following the U.S.'s dramatic late victory over Ghana and Brazil and Mexico beginning their second games of the tournament yesterday. I have been simulating the fixtures with FIFA 14's World Cup mode to put EA's engine to the test, and this is a good time to review its accuracy so far.
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It should be noted that I did not simulate every game, focusing on the bigger games or those expected to be tight contests only--eight in total at this stage of the competition.
Comparing the real results to the simulation predictions shows that FIFA 14 has gotten exactly 50 percent of matches correct, with four right and four wrong. What's interesting is looking at which matches the simulations got right and wrong, as it correctly predicted a big upset, but was sure of some results that ended up going the opposite way in reality.
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It's not a perfect system, as predicting the exact lineup and tactics a team will use is difficult, and simulating a larger sample could lead to different results. The real life games are one-offs too, however, and Spain may well have beaten the Netherlands on nine out of ten other days. Here are the results:
The Correct Predictions
Brazil 3-1 Croatia: FIFA 14 simulated a 1-0 win for the host nation, which probably better reflects how close the game was than the real scoreline. A late Brazil goal padded the result, and the softest penalty of the tournament when it was still 1-1 covered the game in controversy.
Netherlands 5-1 Spain: The game got the biggest upset so far correct, and I even ran the sim a few more times to give FIFA 14 the chance to correct for an outlier. It continued to tell me that the underdog would defeat the world champions, and though the simulated score was only 2-1 and not the eventual blowout we saw in reality.
Chile 3-1 Australia: The simulation predicted a comfortable 2-0 win, and while Australia did get on the score sheet and make things difficult for Chile at times, the South American side was always in control.
Germany 4-0 Portugal: The red card definitely padded the result of this one, which FIFA 14 said would finish 2-1, but the Germans were already up by two goals before Pepe's impetuous actions that saw him sent off.
The Wrong Predictions
Mexico 1-0 Cameroon: FIFA 14 thought the African side would walk away with a close 2-1 victory, as did I given Mexico's poor form over the last year. The new manager has turned things around for Mexico though (as seen in its 0-0 draw with Brazil yesterday as well), and they outplayed Cameroon that day.
Colombia 3-0 Greece: The only draw FIFA 14 simulated turned out to be a comfortable win for Colombia, far from the tough-fought 1-1 match predicted by the game, against a normally stubborn Greek defense that ended up getting exposed several times.
England 1-2 Italy: Along with the next match, this is one that the game was not close on, simulating a 2-0 win for England. I was pretty skeptical of that prediction, which did turn out to be wrong as England struggled beyond its one very good goal.
United States 2-1 Ghana: Happily for Americans, this is the other game FIFA 14 just did not peg correctly. I simulated it multiple times after the first was a 2-0 win for the African side, and the game insisted that Ghana would walk away with the victory. It certainly has the better team on paper, but a fantastic goal by Dempsey 30 seconds into the match turned the game on its head, even if the U.S. was under siege for the majority of the game and scored a late winner off a corner.
It will be interesting to see if FIFA 14 can improve its accuracy going forward, or it will maintain this ratio. It's doing pretty well so far, with most of the incorrect predictions coming in the matches that were close calls to begin with. The World Cup action won't stop with the second round of group games on the way today, so keep checking back for more results.
